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June may become a turning point in the soda ash market

after the Spring Festival, the price of domestic soda ash has entered a straight-line rising channel, with a general rise of 100-200 yuan/ton across the country, and the market is slightly in short supply. However, the author believes that June this year may become a turning point in the soda ash market, and the situation of production exceeding sales and low prices may gradually reappear

leading, the pattern of production exceeding sales is still in place. In terms of output, according to the statistics of China Soda Ash Industry Association, the cumulative output of soda ash in China in 2015 was 26.13 million tons, 250000 tons more than that in 2014; The association predicts that the output of soda ash this year will be slightly higher than that in 2015. In terms of consumption, the apparent consumption of soda ash last year was 2391, and the main uses were 30000 tons; It is expected that the downstream flat glass, daily-use glass, washing powder, alumina and other products will be produced this year, but the two transmission modes have their own disadvantages: the former needs to regularly add lubricating oil, and the alkali consumption is the same as that in 2015, the decline will not be too large, and the rising power is insufficient

on the whole, the output is slightly higher, the consumption is flat, and the overall production of soda ash this year is still greater than the sales pattern

second, the current price rise is mainly due to the shutdown of some production capacity. In the first half of this year, the supply of soda ash slightly fell short of demand, mainly because the Haihua accident led to the shutdown of the market, and the market price rose sharply. At the same time, since December 2015, many production capacities have been shut down or overhauled. Specifically, in October last year, China Resources' 600000 T/a production capacity was discontinued due to poor efficiency; How can Qingdao Soda Industry with an annual capacity of 800000 tons and Fuzhou Yaolong chemical break the bottleneck of market utilization of new materials? Chang Guowu proposed that the production capacity of 400000 tons/year and the production capacity of 600000 tons/year of Jiangsu Zhongyan Kunshan company have also been suspended due to relocation. In addition, Haihua stopped production due to an accident in January this year. In more than three months, the domestic production capacity of 4.4 million tons stopped production, which led to a temporary decline in inventory and tight supply

at present, Haihua unit has gradually resumed production. As it takes time for the full recovery of production capacity, the price of soda ash is expected to remain at a good level in the first half of this year. However, June this year may be the turning point of market changes. The reasons are as follows: first, driven by the rising market prices, the production capacity of 700000 tons/year of the two old plants that have stopped production is already in operation, and it is expected to reach the production capacity after June after running in; The production capacity of the two relocated new plants (Fuzhou Yaolong and Jiangsu Zhongyan Kunshan) of 1million tons/year will also be increased to reach the production level; At that time, Haihua will also resume production in an all-round way. Second, due to the rising price of domestic soda ash, the export volume may decrease in the first half of the year, and the domestic supply will continue to increase

therefore, the author judges that there is a great possibility that the price of soda ash will gradually decline after June, and the enterprise benefit will be lower than that in the first half of the year. To this end, industry insiders called on the state to launch supporting policies as soon as possible, establish an exit mechanism for backward production capacity, and guide enterprise personnel to settle properly, so as to achieve the goal of completely eliminating production capacity

global glass () Department

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